ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s population is expected to reach 26.3 million by the end of 2050, according to the latest forecasts of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF).
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As of Jan. 1, the country’s population stood at over 20.3 million. Of this, 8.7 million people (42.8%) were under the age of 25, 9.7 million (48.0%) were aged 25 to 65, and 1.9 million (9.2%) were over 65.
Last year continued global demographic trends of aging populations and declining birth rates, which have a significant impact on the pension systems of different countries, including Kazakhstan. As highlighted at the World Economic Forum, “there are now more people on Earth older than 65 than younger than five for the first time.
After falling during the pandemic years, life expectancy in Kazakhstan increased from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024.
Both UAPF and UN forecasts show that Kazakhstan is entering a period of demographic aging. The share of people aged 60 and older has grown from 9.7% in 2009 to 13.9% in 2024, and is projected to rise further to 19% by 2050, meaning that one in five Kazakh citizens will be 60 or older by 2050.
According to the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index 2024, in which Kazakhstan was the only CIS country represented, there is a growing need to modernize pension systems in response to falling birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
In these conditions, multi-level pension systems, combining state and funded components, are seen as the most effective model. Kazakhstan already uses this approach, which allows for more sustainable and adequate pension coverage.
However, the solidarity pension is gradually declining, as it is based on work experience accumulated before 1998. Additionally, mandatory pension contributions of 10% may not be sufficient for a secure retirement. To address this, Kazakhstan began implementing mandatory employer pension contributions in 2024 for workers born in 1975 and later.
Today, the responsibility for pension provision in Kazakhstan is shared among the state, the employee, and the employer, in line with international practices.
